Introduction to Probability Models by Sheldon M. Ross.
- This is an introductory class on stochastic processes. We will do a brief review on conditional probability and conditional expectation at the beginning of the class. Then we will study the first stochastic process of the class: Markov chain and its applications to real-world phenomena such as genetics and production processes. Next we will study a special counting process known as Poisson process. Relationship between Poisson process and exponential distribution will be discussed. After that, we will go back to Markov chains again but in continuous times setting. In particular, we will study birth and death models using time reversibility. Finally, we will discuss briefly a very important stochastic process known as Brownian motion. Application to option pricing model (Black-Scholes) will be presented.
Your total grade is based on the following:
- (i) Nine homework assignments, 80 percent
- (ii) Final exam, 20 percent
If you have questions on the homework, please ask me during my office hour or ask me by e-mail.
Again, you are expected to do all the homework independently. Cheating (including copying homework from someone else) is strictly prohibited. Once found the work will be marked zero and may report to university as academic dishonesty which may lead to severe penalties. For details, check academic integrity section for details.
The precise homework assignment can be found in the homework assignment site. A tentative homework list can be found below.
Late work due to uncontrollable circumstance will be accepted only with a proof. Always discuss with me first. Doctor's note is needed if your excuse is for a medical reason.
The last day for withdraw from the class with 100% tuition refund is Friday, January 19, 2001.
The last day to apply for pass/fail option is Friday, January 19, 2001.
The last day for withdraws from the class with grade "W" is Friday, February 23, 2001.
Homework is due every class meeting starting from the second class.
Final is on Monday, March 21, 2001, 5:45 to 8:00 p.m.
Study Hard and Good Luck To Everyone!
Review Chapter 1-2 for basic univariate statistics topics. We will not cover them in the class.
We will cover Chapter 3.1-3.4. The first week homework is Chapter 3, problem number 21, 24, 29, 39.
Class covers The remaining of Chapter 3 (3.4-3.6). The second homework assignment is Chapter 3, problem number 50, 54, 71, 73.
We cover Chapter 4.1-4.5 this week. The third week homework assignment will be assigned later in the class.
Class covers Chapter 4.5-4.10. The rest of the Chapter 6 will be covered next week. The fourth week homework assignment will be assigned later in the class.
We will cover the remaining of Chapter 4 if we haven't finish them last week. Then we will cover 5.1-5.3. The fifth homework will be assigned in the class.
We will cover Chapter 5.3- 5.4. The sixth homework will be assigned in the class.
We will cover the rest of Chapter 5 if we haven't finish them last week. We will then start Chapter 6 and cover Chapter 6.1-6.4. The seventh homework will be given in the class.
We will cover Chapter 6.5-6.8. The eighth homework will be given in the class.
We will cover part of Chapter 10, 10.1-10.4. The nineth homework will be given in the class.
We will cover the rest part of Chapter 10, 10.5 -10.8. and answer to your questions for the class if we have enough time.